Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.5%
Everton
31.5%
Draw
39.1%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Everton
vs
1.27
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS49.2%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.9%
0-0
11.4%
0-1
10.4%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.5%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.5%
0-3
3.3%
3-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).