Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.9%
Chelsea
27.2%
Draw
22.9%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.70
Chelsea
vs
1.09
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS55.9%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.552.8%
Over 3.530.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
2-1
9.7%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
8.8%
0-0
7.7%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
5.5%
2-2
5.3%
0-1
5.1%
3-0
5.0%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).