Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.5%
Benevento
26.2%
Draw
42.3%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Benevento
vs
1.38
Spal
Markets
BTTS50.9%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.4%
Over 3.524.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.2%
1-0
9.4%
1-2
8.7%
0-0
7.7%
0-2
7.6%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.3%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
4.0%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).