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14 Oct 2025 · 18:45

Bury

Away

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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52.8%
St Pauli
21.0%
Draw
26.2%
Bury

Expected Goals (xG)

2.01

St Pauli

vs
1.36

Bury

Markets

BTTS64.0%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.584.6%
Over 2.565.3%
Over 3.543.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
9.5%
1-1
9.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-0
7.0%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
6.3%
0-1
5.0%
3-0
4.7%
3-2
4.3%
0-2
3.2%
4-1
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).