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AHT: 01CSV

12 Mar 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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21.2%
Carlisle
23.5%
Draw
55.3%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

0.90

Carlisle

vs
1.64

Notts County

Markets

BTTS47.5%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.546.8%
Over 3.525.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
13.4%
1-1
11.1%
0-2
10.6%
1-2
9.6%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.3%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.3%
1-3
5.2%
2-2
4.3%
2-0
3.2%
0-4
2.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).