Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.9%
Carlisle
25.5%
Draw
27.7%
Morecambe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Carlisle
vs
1.04
Morecambe
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.570.4%
Over 2.545.1%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.6%
1-1
12.0%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.7%
0-0
7.9%
1-2
6.5%
2-2
4.7%
0-2
4.5%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
4.2%
3-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).