Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.7%
Benfica
27.4%
Draw
36.9%
Sp Lisbon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Benfica
vs
1.15
Sp Lisbon
Markets
BTTS45.4%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.565.6%
Over 2.539.5%
Over 3.519.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
0-1
12.5%
1-0
12.2%
0-0
9.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
4.3%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
2.8%
0-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).