Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.7%
Burnley
22.2%
Draw
13.2%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.12
Burnley
vs
0.88
Southampton
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.581.3%
Over 2.557.6%
Over 3.535.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.8%
1-0
9.3%
3-0
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
4.3%
4-0
4.2%
1-2
4.1%
4-1
3.7%
0-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).