Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.9%
Watford
27.3%
Draw
20.8%
Cardiff
Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
Watford
vs
0.91
Cardiff
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.590.6%
Over 1.571.9%
Over 2.545.1%
Over 3.523.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.0%
1-0
12.1%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
9.4%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.4%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
4.9%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).