Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.9%
Ath Bilbao
25.9%
Draw
41.2%
Villarreal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.29
Ath Bilbao
vs
1.47
Villarreal
Markets
BTTS56.1%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.576.5%
Over 2.552.2%
Over 3.530.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
5.3%
1-3
4.3%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).