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02 May 2026 · 00:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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20.0%
Union Berlin
21.8%
Draw
58.2%
FC Koln

Expected Goals (xG)

1.20

Union Berlin

vs
2.14

FC Koln

Markets

BTTS62.5%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.565.0%
Over 3.543.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
9.8%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
7.0%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
5.8%
2-1
5.5%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
4.2%
1-4
3.7%
1-0
3.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).