Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.0%
Belenenses
29.8%
Draw
29.2%
Chaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Belenenses
vs
0.87
Chaves
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.586.4%
Over 1.557.6%
Over 2.531.1%
Over 3.513.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.0%
0-0
13.6%
0-1
12.8%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
8.4%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
3.1%
3-0
3.0%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).