Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.9%
Celta
26.2%
Draw
14.9%
Alaves
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Celta
vs
0.64
Alaves
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.564.6%
Over 2.537.4%
Over 3.517.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.0%
2-0
13.4%
0-0
11.6%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
0-1
6.8%
3-1
4.4%
1-2
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
4-0
2.7%
0-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).