Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.4%
Dortmund
24.7%
Draw
25.9%
Leverkusen
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Dortmund
vs
1.24
Leverkusen
Markets
BTTS59.9%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.581.2%
Over 2.558.2%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.3%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.7%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).