Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.5%
Dortmund
15.7%
Draw
8.8%
Werder Bremen
Expected Goals (xG)
2.62
Dortmund
vs
0.82
Werder Bremen
Markets
BTTS52.2%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.586.2%
Over 2.566.7%
Over 3.544.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.1%
3-0
9.7%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.0%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
7.4%
4-0
6.3%
4-1
5.2%
0-0
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
5-0
3.3%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).