Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.3%
Brentford
29.5%
Draw
30.2%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Brentford
vs
1.11
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.570.7%
Over 2.543.6%
Over 3.522.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.0%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
10.0%
0-1
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
4.7%
3-1
3.7%
3-0
3.4%
1-3
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).