Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Middlesbrough
26.5%
Draw
29.5%
Southampton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Middlesbrough
vs
1.25
Southampton
Markets
BTTS57.5%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).