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04 Jan 2026 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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44.0%
Middlesbrough
26.5%
Draw
29.5%
Southampton

Expected Goals (xG)

1.58

Middlesbrough

vs
1.25

Southampton

Markets

BTTS57.5%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.578.2%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.8%
0-1
6.6%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).