Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.0%
Derby
26.7%
Draw
14.2%
Wigan
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Derby
vs
0.65
Wigan
Markets
BTTS39.1%
Over 0.588.4%
Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.538.9%
Over 3.518.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
11.6%
2-1
8.8%
3-0
7.1%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.6%
1-2
3.6%
2-2
2.9%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).