Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.1%
Arouca
24.5%
Draw
46.4%
Gil Vicente
Expected Goals (xG)
1.36
Arouca
vs
1.77
Gil Vicente
Markets
BTTS62.4%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.582.6%
Over 2.560.6%
Over 3.538.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.2%
1-2
9.3%
2-1
7.2%
0-1
7.1%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.5%
1-0
5.3%
0-0
5.0%
2-0
4.1%
0-3
4.0%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).