Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.5%
Vallecano
31.0%
Draw
21.4%
Deportivo Alavés
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Vallecano
vs
0.72
Deportivo Alavés
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.585.0%
Over 1.557.9%
Over 2.530.4%
Over 3.513.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
15.0%
1-1
13.1%
2-0
10.7%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
4.5%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
3.7%
3-1
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
4-0
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).