Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.6%
Fleetwood Town
20.7%
Draw
19.7%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.84
Fleetwood Town
vs
0.94
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS50.3%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.552.6%
Over 3.530.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.3%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
1-1
9.8%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.1%
0-0
5.3%
1-2
5.0%
2-2
4.6%
4-0
3.0%
3-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).