Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.6%
Celta
26.7%
Draw
17.7%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Celta
vs
0.74
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.589.2%
Over 1.566.5%
Over 2.539.5%
Over 3.519.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.4%
1-1
12.1%
2-0
12.1%
0-0
10.8%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).