Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.7%
Derby
20.1%
Draw
10.2%
Rotherham
Expected Goals (xG)
2.13
Derby
vs
0.70
Rotherham
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.578.1%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.4%
1-0
11.8%
1-1
9.5%
3-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
4-0
5.1%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.4%
2-2
3.3%
1-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).