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29 Apr 2025 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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31.3%
Casa Pia
23.8%
Draw
44.9%
Estoril

Expected Goals (xG)

1.54

Casa Pia

vs
1.87

Estoril

Markets

BTTS67.1%
Over 0.595.9%
Over 1.586.1%
Over 2.566.2%
Over 3.544.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
10.3%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.8%
1-3
5.5%
0-1
5.5%
1-0
4.4%
2-3
4.3%
0-0
4.1%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
3.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).