Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →79.6%
Leeds
14.9%
Draw
5.4%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.48
Leeds
vs
0.53
Luton
Markets
BTTS38.2%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.580.8%
Over 2.557.9%
Over 3.535.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.2%
3-0
12.5%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
7.8%
1-1
7.0%
3-1
6.6%
0-0
5.5%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.9%
2-2
2.1%
0-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).