Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.6%
Arsenal
13.9%
Draw
5.5%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
2.81
Arsenal
vs
0.68
Burnley
Markets
BTTS47.1%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.587.1%
Over 2.567.8%
Over 3.546.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.0%
3-0
11.3%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
8.0%
1-0
7.8%
3-1
7.7%
1-1
6.6%
4-1
5.4%
5-0
4.5%
0-0
3.8%
5-1
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).