Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →51.3%
Modena
29.4%
Draw
19.3%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Modena
vs
0.78
Spal
Markets
BTTS42.6%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.538.3%
Over 3.518.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.4%
1-1
13.4%
0-0
12.1%
2-0
11.2%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.3%
3-0
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
3-1
4.2%
2-2
3.4%
0-2
3.3%
4-0
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).