Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.8%
Stevenage
21.2%
Draw
14.0%
Newport County
Expected Goals (xG)
1.82
Stevenage
vs
0.69
Newport County
Markets
BTTS41.4%
Over 0.592.3%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.8%
Over 3.524.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.1%
0-0
7.7%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
4-0
3.7%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.2%
4-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).