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03 May 2025 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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16.1%
Estoril
19.2%
Draw
64.7%
Benfica

Expected Goals (xG)

1.17

Estoril

vs
2.44

Benfica

Markets

BTTS63.6%
Over 0.596.7%
Over 1.588.1%
Over 2.569.9%
Over 3.548.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
9.4%
1-1
8.3%
0-2
8.1%
1-3
7.7%
0-3
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.5%
1-4
4.7%
2-1
4.5%
2-3
4.5%
0-4
4.0%
0-0
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).