Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →74.6%
Ath Madrid
16.2%
Draw
9.2%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
2.47
Ath Madrid
vs
0.76
Almeria
Markets
BTTS48.9%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.562.6%
Over 3.540.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.1%
3-0
10.0%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-1
7.7%
3-1
7.5%
4-0
6.1%
4-1
4.7%
0-0
4.2%
2-2
3.5%
5-0
3.0%
3-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).