Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.5%
Manchester City
9.9%
Draw
6.5%
Curzon Ashton
Expected Goals (xG)
3.39
Manchester City
vs
0.92
Curzon Ashton
Markets
BTTS58.0%
Over 0.598.8%
Over 1.592.7%
Over 2.580.4%
Over 3.562.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
8.7%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
7.7%
4-0
7.4%
2-1
7.1%
4-1
6.8%
5-0
5.0%
1-0
4.7%
5-1
4.6%
1-1
4.1%
3-2
3.7%
2-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).