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02 Sept 2023 · 17:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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53.0%
Udinese
23.6%
Draw
23.4%
Frosinone

Expected Goals (xG)

1.70

Udinese

vs
1.04

Frosinone

Markets

BTTS52.8%
Over 0.593.8%
Over 1.575.8%
Over 2.551.8%
Over 3.529.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.2%
1-0
11.1%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.3%
0-1
6.9%
0-0
6.2%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.5%
3-0
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).