Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →34.5%
Chaves
23.8%
Draw
41.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Chaves
vs
1.51
Arouca
Markets
BTTS57.3%
Over 0.594.8%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.554.6%
Over 3.532.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.1%
0-1
9.1%
1-2
8.8%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
7.9%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
2-0
5.2%
0-0
5.2%
1-3
4.4%
3-1
3.6%
0-3
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).