Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.2%
Spal
27.0%
Draw
40.8%
Sassuolo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Spal
vs
1.30
Sassuolo
Markets
BTTS48.7%
Over 0.591.3%
Over 1.569.2%
Over 2.543.4%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
0-1
11.8%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
8.7%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
5.6%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.6%
0-3
3.2%
3-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).