Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →46.8%
Derby
25.8%
Draw
27.4%
Hull
Expected Goals (xG)
1.67
Derby
vs
1.23
Hull
Markets
BTTS58.1%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.579.2%
Over 2.555.2%
Over 3.532.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.4%
0-1
6.0%
2-2
5.8%
3-1
5.2%
3-0
4.3%
0-2
4.2%
3-2
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).