Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.5%
Belenenses
29.3%
Draw
44.3%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Belenenses
vs
1.16
Nacional
Markets
BTTS37.9%
Over 0.586.8%
Over 1.558.3%
Over 2.531.8%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.6%
0-0
13.2%
1-1
12.6%
1-0
11.9%
0-2
9.3%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.6%
2-2
3.1%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).