Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.1%
Southampton
25.7%
Draw
55.2%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.01
Southampton
vs
1.84
Burnley
Markets
BTTS55.1%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.579.3%
Over 2.554.3%
Over 3.532.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.8%
0-1
9.1%
0-0
7.3%
1-3
6.1%
0-3
6.0%
2-1
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
1-0
4.4%
2-3
3.1%
2-0
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).