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AHT: 02CSV

14 Apr 2017

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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60.9%
Peterboro
19.4%
Draw
19.7%
Fleetwood Town

Expected Goals (xG)

2.03

Peterboro

vs
1.04

Fleetwood Town

Markets

BTTS55.4%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.580.3%
Over 2.559.2%
Over 3.536.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.5%
1-1
9.0%
3-1
6.7%
3-0
6.4%
0-1
5.7%
2-2
5.2%
1-2
5.1%
0-0
3.8%
3-2
3.5%
4-1
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).