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17 Jan 2026 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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20.1%
Crawley Town
24.3%
Draw
55.6%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

0.83

Crawley Town

vs
1.58

Notts County

Markets

BTTS44.3%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.568.9%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.3%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
14.7%
1-1
11.3%
0-2
11.2%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
8.5%
1-0
7.9%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
4.9%
2-1
4.9%
2-2
3.9%
2-0
3.1%
0-4
2.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).