Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.1%
Nacional
24.3%
Draw
25.6%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56
Nacional
vs
1.03
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS50.4%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.572.6%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
6.9%
1-2
6.2%
3-1
4.9%
2-2
4.9%
3-0
4.7%
0-2
4.0%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).