Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.4%
Nacional
23.5%
Draw
17.1%
Pacos Ferreira
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Nacional
vs
0.73
Pacos Ferreira
Markets
BTTS41.3%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.567.8%
Over 2.542.0%
Over 3.521.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
7.4%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.1%
2-2
3.4%
4-0
2.8%
0-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).