Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.7%
Derby
29.2%
Draw
22.1%
Blackburn
Expected Goals (xG)
1.42
Derby
vs
0.87
Blackburn
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.540.0%
Over 3.519.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-0
13.3%
0-0
11.2%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.2%
2-2
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).