Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.4%
Arsenal
28.1%
Draw
14.5%
Everton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.58
Arsenal
vs
0.69
Everton
Markets
BTTS41.1%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.567.8%
Over 2.539.6%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
2-0
12.9%
1-1
12.8%
0-0
11.9%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.5%
3-1
4.7%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.1%
4-0
2.7%
0-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).