Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.7%
Almeria
22.2%
Draw
28.1%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.89
Almeria
vs
1.37
Malaga
Markets
BTTS63.2%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.563.2%
Over 3.541.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.9%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
6.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
3-0
4.3%
3-2
4.0%
0-0
3.8%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).