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02 Feb 2024 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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7.4%
Heidenheim
14.8%
Draw
77.7%
Dortmund

Expected Goals (xG)

0.73

Heidenheim

vs
2.65

Dortmund

Markets

BTTS48.6%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.585.6%
Over 2.565.7%
Over 3.543.8%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-2
11.9%
0-3
10.6%
1-2
8.7%
0-1
8.6%
1-3
7.7%
1-1
7.0%
0-4
7.0%
1-4
5.1%
0-0
3.8%
0-5
3.7%
2-2
3.2%
2-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).