Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →75.9%
Castellon
16.0%
Draw
8.2%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
2.31
Castellon
vs
0.61
Lugo
Markets
BTTS40.9%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.578.7%
Over 2.555.8%
Over 3.533.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
1-0
12.6%
3-0
11.1%
2-1
8.8%
1-1
7.5%
3-1
6.7%
4-0
6.4%
0-0
5.3%
4-1
3.9%
0-1
3.4%
5-0
3.0%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).