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19 Aug 2023 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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72.0%
Derby
17.4%
Draw
10.5%
Fleetwood Town

Expected Goals (xG)

2.04

Derby

vs
0.60

Fleetwood Town

Markets

BTTS38.6%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.527.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.2%
2-0
14.8%
3-0
10.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.0%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
5.2%
0-1
5.0%
4-1
3.1%
2-2
2.7%
1-2
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).