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HHT: 11CSV

07 Oct 2023 · 19:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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54.3%
St Pauli
24.2%
Draw
21.5%
Nurnberg

Expected Goals (xG)

1.91

St Pauli

vs
1.14

Nurnberg

Markets

BTTS58.9%
Over 0.594.3%
Over 1.581.8%
Over 2.558.8%
Over 3.536.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.6%
1-0
8.1%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
3-0
5.5%
0-1
4.4%
3-2
3.6%
0-2
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).