Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.0%
Cartagena
26.5%
Draw
41.4%
Ponferradina
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Cartagena
vs
1.35
Ponferradina
Markets
BTTS50.7%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.571.3%
Over 2.545.8%
Over 3.524.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.6%
0-1
11.1%
1-0
9.5%
1-2
8.6%
0-0
8.0%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.3%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
5.0%
1-3
3.9%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).