Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.3%
Portimonense
24.4%
Draw
43.3%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Portimonense
vs
1.48
Nacional
Markets
BTTS54.3%
Over 0.593.9%
Over 1.575.0%
Over 2.551.1%
Over 3.529.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.6%
0-1
10.3%
1-2
8.9%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
0-0
6.1%
2-2
5.5%
2-0
5.1%
1-3
4.4%
0-3
3.6%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).